Category: San Diego

The State of San Diego's Pensions

In a little noticed report, two finance professors examined the true cost of state government pension underfunding.

Their findings are mind-boggling.

Robert Novy-Marx and Joshua Rauh found that collectively, the pensions of the 50 U.S. states are underfunded by $3.23 trillion. And that doesn’t even include local government pensions.

Most pensions calculate future obligations using a method that only an actuary could love: the “individual entry-age normal cost method.”

The exceedingly dull explanation of this is that a worker’s retirement benefits are funded over the course of his or her entire career.

But this measurement doesn’t show how much the pension owes right now.

Novy-Marx and Rauh ask how much would a pension plan owe if the entire workforce were laid off today.

They call this the “accumulated benefit obligation.” In San Diego, it’s known as the “present value of future benefits”  They both refer to the same thing: the amount of money needed to pay off the entire plan if the workforce were laid off today:

For a pension plan to be considered fully funded, its assets should be at a minimum be equal to the accumulated benefit obligation.

The city of San Diego’s official unfunded liability stands at $2.1 billion using the entry-age normal method. The county’s is less than a billion.
When we look at what the plan would owe if it were terminated today, those figures rise considerably.

2010 Top San Diego Money Managers

The top San Diego money management firms with more than $1 billion in assets under management based on SEC regulatory filings as of June 12, 2010.

Firm Name Location Assets Under Management
Brandes Investment Partners, LP San Diego $53,111,776,127
Pacific Corporate Group LLC La Jolla $19,823,150,992
Guided Choice Asset Management, Inc. San Diego $19,238,786,500
PCG Asset Management, LLC La Jolla $19,203,420,729
Nicholas-Applegate Capital Management LLC San Diego $9,916,244,833
Gurtin Fixed Income Management, LLC Solana Beach $6,747,183,972
Relational Investors LLC San Diego $6,033,534,431
Chandler Asset Management Inc San Diego $5,005,221,338
Globeflex Capital LP San Diego $4,182,000,000
LM Capital Group, LLC San Diego $4,010,525,407
Clarivest Asset Management LLC San Diego $1,800,000,000
First Allied Securities, Inc. San Diego $1,654,019,937
Stolper & Co., Inc. San Diego $1,574,982,908
Wall Street Associates La Jolla $1,528,000,000
Dowling & Yahnke, LLC San Diego $1,473,382,112
Denali Advisors, LLC La Jolla $1,274,412,604
Rice Hall James & Associates LLC San Diego $1,203,218,265
Caywood-Scholl Capital Management LLC San Diego $1,094,183,050
Independent Financial Group, LLC San Diego $1,043,692,374
Macquarie Funds Management Carlsbad $1,005,232,323

@ 2010 Seth Hettena

Negative Equity in the San Diego Housing Market

San Diego’s housing market may have much further to fall.

So says a new report from the NY Federal Reserve that calculates how many homeowners will become renters over the next few years.

In San Diego, 16 percent of homeowners will become renters, according to the study

This measure assumes that homeowners who owe more than their homes are worth — i.e. negative equity — are in effect renters.

Since the homeownership gap reflects the extent of negative equity in the housing market, it is also a gauge of the potential downward pressure on the offcial homeownership rate. Assuming that house prices do not appreciate over the next several years, negative equity households will very likely convert to renters when they move out of their current homes because they will be unable to save enough to cover the negative equity, the transaction costs of selling their existing home, and a down payment on another home. As these transitions from owning to renting take place, the homeownership gap will narrow, with the offcial homeownership rate dropping toward the effective rate.
The official rate of homeownership in San Diego is 55 percent. But the Fed’s analysis of federal loan data shows that only 39 percent of homeowners will get some money back when they sell.
The difference between these two numbers yields the homeownership gap. And barring a huge rise in prices, that’s where we are headed.
It’s bad, and it may even be worse. According to the paper, these numbers may actually understate the extent of the problem.If you use Case-Shiller’s numbers, only 35 percent of San Diego homeowners have positive equity.  So the gap grows to 20 percentage points.
This has far-reaching implications:
Consider, for example, that the Case-Shiller-based effective homeownership rates for … Detroit, New York City, San Diego, and San Francisco are all under 50 percent. That is, the median household in these areas is in a negative equity position and no longer has strong financial incentives to behave as an owner. While the effects will vary with the distribution of negative equity households across the municipalities within these metro areas, a high share of these households could result in reduced maintenance of the housing stock, an increased risk of housing vacancies, and less stable neighborhoods over time—developments that could have repercussions for local law enforcement. Moreover, the predominance of “non-homeowners” in these metropolitan areas could lead to a decline in citizen participation in local affairs, with a concomitant loss of vigilance over the quality and ef?ciency of public services and institutions.

San Diego County Pension Lowers Rate of Return

San Diego County’s pension fund just handed the county bill for more than $30 million a year yet no one seems to have noticed.

Every three years, San Diego County’s pension fund looks into its crystal ball and decides what it expects investments returns will be over the next 50 years.

It’s arguably the most important and difficult decision the board has to make. Even a small change can force the county to cough up millions of dollars each year.

Yesterday, the board of the San Diego County Employee Retirement Association lowered its assumed net rate of return from 8.25 percent to 8 percent effective July 1, 2011. (Watch the meeting online here.)

A quarter percent may not sound like much, but it’s a change that will force the county to pay 3 percent of payroll each year. Using last year’s payroll numbers, that works out to roughly $33.88 million.

The 8 percent assumed rate of return represents the pension’s best guess about how the fund will do in the future, so that the county can set aside money to ensure the plan is well funded.

The shift to an 8 percent assumed rate of return moves San Diego County’s pension more in line with other big state pension funds. CalPERS, the $200 billion retirement system, is reviewing its assumed 7.75 percent rate of return and will make a recommendation to the board whether to lower it later this year.

Three years ago, the pension’s actuarial consultant, Segal Group, recommended an assumed rate of return but the then chief investment officer, David Deutsch, promised that he could generate the additional 8.25 percent with his Alpha Engine.

Deutsch resigned under pressure shortly before the pension reported losses of $2.4 billion for the 2008-2009 fiscal year.

The assumed rate of return is perhaps the most important variable in calculating a key barometer of a pension’s health known as the funding ratio — the ratio of assets to liabilities. SDCERA’s funding ratio stands officially at 91.5 percent, but that’s only because of an accounting practice that defers losses over several years.

If last year’s $2.1 billion loss were to be recognized right away, San Diego County’s pension fund would only be 65 percent funded, according to a report by an independent consultant. That’s well below the 80 percent that pension experts regard as healthy.