Empty Russian Promises

Large crowds gathered in Moscow Friday as Russian opposition leader Alexei Navaly was laid to rest.

Navalny’s aides claimed that he was on the verge of being freed in a prisoner exchange with the West when he died Feb. 16 in an Arctic penal colony. Early-stage discussions had begun to swap Navalny, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, and ex-Marine Paul Whelan for Vadim Krasikov, who was convicted of killing a former Chechen separatist fighter in Berlin in 2019, according to The New York Times.

Meanwhile, President Biden still hasn’t delivered on his promise of “devastating” consequences if Navalny died.

To mark the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and punish Russia for Navalny’s death, the Biden administration unveiled a sweeping package of sanctions on more than 500 people and companies, including some officials linked to the prison where Navalny died. But behind the scenes, administration officials were quietly downplaying the potential impact of the new measures, the Wall Street Journal reported.

The most effective punishment would be direct U.S. military aid to Ukraine, but a measure approving $60 billion in funding remains hopelessly tied up in the House of Represtatives.

That’s not to say the White House doesn’t have options.

Another devastating blow would be using some or all of the $300 billion in Russian assets frozen by the United States after the invasion to help Ukraine. On Tuesday, White House spokesman John Kirby said the administration was “exploring the option,” but cautioned that U.S. allies need to be on board. Public bickering at this week’s G20 meeting showed they aren’t behind it.

The administration has also held off on another powerful measure—a full embargo on the sale of Russian oil. The administration instead imposed an oil price cap that is increasingly unenforceable and allows billions of dollars to fund Moscow’s war machine. A full embargo on Russian oil would almost certainly unleash economic turbulence that the White House would rather avoid in an election year.

Finally, the United States could add Russia to the official list of state sponsors of terrorism along with Cuba, Iran, North Korea and Syria. Such a declaration would open the U.S. courts to lawsuits by victims of Russian aggression and allow them to claim damages from frozen Russian assets. There’s no doubt some reason why White House hasn’t pulled the trigger, but we don’t know what it is. Kirby has ducked questions on this subject in recent days.

To be sure, all of these options carry risk. But slapping Putin’s wrist with more ineffective sanctions only emboldens him.

The White House could use a good dose of Navalny’s courage.

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