Newspaper Bankruptcy Watch: Reader's Digest

From Bloomberg:

March 4 (Bloomberg) — Reader’s Digest Association Inc., the closely held magazine publisher, hired law firm Kirkland & Ellis LLP to explore restructuring options including a possible bankruptcy filing, a person familiar with the situation said.

Couple of stories out

My piece on another hedge fund blowup at San Diego County’s $7.9b pension fund ran in the Voice of San Diego.

And The American Lawyer is out with my story about the heightened pace of congressional investigations.

How bad can this economy get?

Bill Gross of PIMCO, the world’s biggest bond fund tackles that one:

Question: How bad could this get?

Answer: No one knows for sure, but common sense would provide a good guess. If the government cannot substitute credit to the same extent that it is disappearing from the private system, then the U.S. and global economies will retreat. If the economy is viewed as a bathtub filled with water (credit) at two different times with two different levels, then draining it back down to the lower first level might reduce economic activity proportionately. Liquidate debt (credit) to 2003 totals and you just might reduce economic activity (GDP) to 2003 numbers as well. Whoops! That would mean a 10%+ contraction in the economy with unemployment approaching the teens. Keep that bathtub full!

Question: What can be done?

Answer: Keeping the tub sufficiently full means advancing policies in content and magnitude never contemplated since the days of FDR. The U.S. and global financial systems require credit creation and foreclosure prevention, not bank nationalization as currently contemplated by some. Trillions will be required in the U.S. alone and it is critical that there be a high degree of policy coordination among all nations, which avoids protectionist measures reflective of failed policies in the 1930s. To date, PIMCO’s Mohamed El-Erian’s imperative of “shock and awe” has been more like “don’t bother us, we’re working on it.” Get moving. Risk being bold – Washington.

Newspaper Bankruptcy Watch: Gannett Co.

The short-sellers are smelling blood at Gannett, which was No. 16 on the list of their favorite stocks (as of Feb. 25). More than 30 percent of oustanding shares were being shorted.

Shares of the nation’s largest newspaper chain fell below $3 today, meaning the company can be had for $666M. Driving the stock lower was  news that S&P had joined Moody’s in junking Gannett’s debt.

Revenues are plunging and Gannett is being squeezed for the cash it needs to pay the bank. At the end of 2008, Gannett had approximately $3.8 billion in long-term debt. The company had approximately $1.2 billion of additional borrowing capacity to repay debt maturing in 2009 and beyond.

All this debt financed the purchase of newspapers that are worth much less than the company paid for them. In 2008, Gannett took a goodwill charge (writedown of assets) of $8.3 billion (!), almost all of it in its publishing division.

Now I am become debt, the destroyer of newspapers.